Iran Nuclear Talks in Vienna Won’t Result in a Better Deal

The following is an excerpt…

The nuclear negotiations in Vienna continue. The Iranians are setting the tone and pace while the Americans struggle to keep alive the possibility of a deal. The Israelis—for whom these talks will have severe national security implications—are distracted by COVID surges and domestic politics.

There are two parallel paths out of Vienna. One is a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, although it should be clear by now that this outcome is near impossible. The other is an interim arrangement in which Tehran agrees to a limited freeze on some of its nuclear activities in exchange for billions in sanctions relief.

Israeli leaders have requested that Washington put a stop to the Iranian strategy of slowing down the negotiations. That strategy only allows Tehran to develop its capabilities and draw closer to “nuclear threshold state” status. Once that occurs, no country will be able to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. So far, the American response is feckless dialogue.

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Read the full piece on FDD’s website here or on Newsweek‘s website here. 

Despite U.S. Concessions, the IAEA Can Take Tehran to Task

The following is an excerpt:

Rafael Grossi, the director general of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is losing patience with Iran’s nuclear duplicity. Last week, he took Tehran to task for failing to explain uranium traces found in at least two sites during agency visits to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is a “big problem” that damages Iran’s credibility, Grossi explained. He demanded that the clerical regime immediately “come clean.” In an IAEA report released on Sunday, Grossi demanded full transparency from Iran in order for the agency to provide assurances of the peaceful nature of the country’s nuclear program.

Grossi’s announcement and the agency report come at a critical moment. The Biden administration is currently negotiating a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Iran in Vienna. But, as American diplomats tout the necessity of a JCPOA return, the U.N. nuclear chief made it clear that the agreement is outdated. The agreement does not address Tehran’s increased nuclear expertise or its development of advanced centrifuges. Nor does it address Iran’s nuclear weapons activities. In Grossi’s words, “You cannot put the genie back into the bottle.”

The Iranian strategy in Vienna is obvious: wield the threat of nuclear escalation to extort tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief and win tacit permission to forge ahead on nuclear R&D. Under a restored JCPOA, Tehran’s clerical regime will be legally allowed to install advanced centrifuges, build up its enrichment capabilities and wait for key restrictions to sunset over the next two to nine years. After 2030, none of the JCPOA’s prohibitions on the Islamic Republic’s ability to enrich massive uranium quantities to weapon-grade will still be in effect.

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Read the full piece by Mark Dubowitz and Jacob Nagel on FDD’s website here and on Newsweek’s website here.

Why reassessing Israel’s risky relationship with China matters

Analysis: Beijing’s full-throated defense of the Islamic Republic should set off alarm bells for any Israeli who fears a nuclear-armed Iran with advanced ballistic and cruise missiles capable of bringing a second Holocaust.

Hebrew translation available here.

The following is an excerpt:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently called on the United Nations Security Council to reimpose, or “snapback,” international sanctions and restrictions on the Islamic Republic of Iran – a terror-sponsoring regime that seeks to wipe Israel off the map.

Just as the prime minister was speaking, another country was addressing the Security Council in defense of Iran: the People’s Republic of China.

Most Israelis would be shocked to learn this. According to a December 2019 Pew research poll, 66 percent of Israelis hold a favorable opinion of China against 25 percent who hold an unfavorable view.

As support for the Chinese Communist Party plummets worldwide, Israel is one of only nine countries where positive views of Beijing recently increased.

Sino-Israeli comity is particularly evident in the economic sphere: China accounts for roughly 10 to 15 percent of the Israeli economy. Sino-Israeli trade stood at $15.3 billion in 2018, an almost 4,400 percent increase in real dollar terms since 1995.

Admittedly, other American allies have strong ties to China. Chinese trade with Germany, for example, stood at $231 billion in 2018, an almost 2,000 percent increase in real dollar terms since 1992.

But trade hasn’t made Beijing popular in Deutschland. Only 34 percent of Germans, according to the same Pew poll, hold a favorable view of China compared to 56 percent that do not. This is one of the lowest favorability ratings for China in Europe.

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Read Mark and Rich’s piece on the outlet’s website here or on FDD’s website here.

Read the Hebrew translation here.

Countering China Is for the BIRDs

The following is an excerpt:

In 1950, as Cold War tensions were on the rise, President Harry Truman asked allies to stand and be counted. Israel reflexively stepped up and backed the president who bravely supported the creation of the Jewish state just two years before.

Seventy years later, new cold war tensions are stirring. This time, the adversary is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The White House is once again asking allies to step forward. Israel is expected to oblige. After all, America is its most important ally. But Jerusalem can’t afford to move too quickly, this time. Its financial stability is at stake.

It all began with Washington’s miscalculation that money would seduce the hard men of Beijing to become responsible global stakeholders. This notion dominated the thinking of U.S. foreign policy and business since President Richard Nixon and his national security consigliere Henry Kissinger began wooing China in 1972 in order to drive a wedge between China and the Soviet Union.

American money soon flowed east. China-U.S. investment and trade skyrocketed. By 2018, the economic relationship between Washington and Beijing topped $778 billion, an increase of roughly 4,750 percent in real dollar terms from 1980. The rest of the West followed. For example, Chinese trade with Germany stood at $231 billion in 2018, an almost 2,000 percent increase in real dollar terms since 1992.

However, after years of Chinese hacking, intellectual property theft and challenges to the American-led world order, Washington is coming to grips with what we might call “Nixon’s Nonstarter” or “Kissinger’s Collapse.” The Chinese Communist Party is not a responsible global stakeholder. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has turned his country into a wealthier, more belligerent authoritarian state.

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Read Mark and Jonathan’s article for Newsweek on the outlet’s website here. 

Two Years On, the Trump Administration’s Iran Policy Continues to Make Sense